No offshore wind power without ports
A new report from the CIP Foundation shows that Danish ports do not have the necessary capacity to meet the Danish targets for offshore wind development.
The combination of under-dimensioned ports, uncertain and uncoordinated planning of Danish offshore wind energy deployment, and relatively few port areas lead to considerable bottlenecks in the expansion, and this could jeopardise the realisation of climate targets.
On the other hand, strategic investments in selected Danish ports will enable Denmark to reach its targets for offshore wind deployment while maintaining the country’s strong position in the offshore wind installation market.
The green transition requires massive deployment of renewable energy. By 2030, Denmark is to complete a five-fold expansion of current wind capacity. A capacity that has taken more than 20 years to establish. And up to 2050, Denmark is expected to deploy a total of 52 GW of offshore wind power, compared to the 2.3 GW installed today.
Ports will be a lot busier when this historically large number of turbines have to be shipped out. And what’s more, the turbines will be bigger and heavier. From 2025, 15 MW offshore wind turbines are likely to be the industry standard. A weight increase of 50 per cent will put new demands on the bearing capacity of quays and the depth of channels. This will put unprecedented pressure on the ports from which the turbines are to be manufactured and installed.
In the report, the CIP Foundation states that only very few ports today can meet this demand, and even with an upgrade of all Danish installation ports, Denmark will not be able to realise deployment goals, as bottlenecks will arise in the peak years around 2030.
”The green transition risks being stranded on the quayside because we simply can’t deploy the turbines needed to meet the expansion targets Denmark has committed to through international agreements. This is because projects are growing in number and turbines are getting bigger and heavier. Therefore, we need significant investment in Danish ports,” says Charlotte B. Jepsen, senior partner in the CIP Foundation
This has led the CIP Foundation to call for clear development plans for offshore wind so that investment decisions are made on a solid basis.
”The challenge lies in the fact that, although the political objectives are very ambitious, very little is known about the offshore wind projects. Uncertainty about where specific projects are to be completed, when they are to be completed and who is to be responsible for development, causes uncertainty throughout the entire value chain. This uncertainty and the absence of an investment signal from politicians means that it is not possible to make decisions about these large, irreversible infrastructure investments in Danish port capacity,” says Charlotte B. Jepsen.
This uncertainty in the value chain is an important concern. Because ports are not only important for the individual project, they’re also of consequence for the entire value chain. It must be possible to ship wind turbines from Danish ports if we are to continue to have a large and strong wind turbine production and ancillary industry around the country.
Danish ports can play a key role in Europe’s green transition
Despite the challenges, Danish installation ports are well positioned in the international competition in northern Europe, which is facing even larger shortages of port capacity. Both the capacity of Danish installation ports and their many years of experience with installing offshore wind turbines make Danish ports significant players in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea.
”The good news and the bad news is that the problem is the same in the rest of Europe, so at this point there is limited outside help. On the other hand, if we tackle the challenge correctly, we can create a new export success for Danish ports that can become a vital element in Europe’s green transition. But we must act now. Otherwise, foreign competitors will overtake us,” says Charlotte B. Jepsen.
In total, the CIP Foundation has identified 91 GW of offshore wind power that is likely to be installed from Danish ports up to 2050. This covers about 52 GW of Danish offshore wind power as well as nearby foreign offshore wind farms, where Danish ports are closest.
By investing in upgrading Danish installation ports, reducing time spent on processing by authorities, and bringing forward tendering procedures for offshore wind power, according to the CIP Foundation Denmark could meet its expansion goals, while also generating thousands of jobs and growth worth DKK 80 billion over the period.
Read the report here
Figure 1.1. Danish port capacity for offshore wind installations, GW/year
Source: The CIP Foundation based on KPMG (2023)
Note: KPMG’s calculation includes both blue and grey ports, and the total port capacity is indicated by the highest number of GW/year in the ranges. In the conservative scenario, only the blue ports are included, so there is lower total port capacity in terms of GW/year in this scenario, which is indicated by the lowest number in the ranges.